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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 780000 MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Wednesday, 06 July 16
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
After a fairly silent first half of the year in the ship repair sector, we have finally a harmonized workload in the shipyards around the world. Ma ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the mon ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
SPOT COAL INDEXES FOR INDONESIAN COAL CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.83 percent week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week, sh ...
Monday, 04 July 16
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE CLIMBED 2.30% IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in July 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the r ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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