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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 780000 MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Wednesday, 06 July 16
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
After a fairly silent first half of the year in the ship repair sector, we have finally a harmonized workload in the shipyards around the world. Ma ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the mon ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
SPOT COAL INDEXES FOR INDONESIAN COAL CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.83 percent week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week, sh ...
Monday, 04 July 16
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE CLIMBED 2.30% IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in July 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the r ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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