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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 July 16
BDI ROSE ON STRONGER DEMAND ACROSS ALL VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 11.16 percent from la ...
Friday, 01 July 16
BREXIT SET TO HURT SHIPPING IN THE LONG-TERM AS IT WILL TAKE ITS TOLL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY'S GROWTH - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Setting aside the short-term negative impact of the Brexit, in terms of stock market and currency volatility, it’s more than evident that the ...
Friday, 01 July 16
U.S'S COAL EXPORTS HAVE DECLINED FOR TWELVE QUARTERS IN A ROW - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.7 million short t ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
CAPE - THIS WEEK'S FREIGHT AND ACTIVITY LEVEL HAVE KEPT STABLE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
This week’s freight and activity level have kept stable. It is support at the present levels and despite a volatile market the freight ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
OIL PRODUCT TANKERS EARNINGS DECLINE AS STOCKBUILDING SLOWS DOWN - BIMCO
BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is stil ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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