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Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
 Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freight market at the moment, stagnation is the one that pretty much sums it up.
It seems that at this point of time the dry bulk market has found some sort of balance around OPEX levels for all segments, but even in these cases where a small profit margin is achieved, this is usually too insignificant to allow owners to meet the additional obligations arising from the financing cost that burdens most vessels.
The question that naturally arises is what will be this decisive event that will create the momentum to help drag the market outs if this current stagnation and what sorts of levels can it push the market to.
Irrespective of where the market is, the last two quarters of the year are typically stronger due to the boost of trade volumes of a number of dry cargo commodities at this time of the year. This means that we could well see the index nearing 700 points before the end of the year. Saying that, last year comes as a reminder that history doesn't always repeat itself. While bold predictions were made for the end of 2015, the market not only didn’t move upwards but it actually marked historical , up to that point, lows in many cases, which brings us to the negative scenario for this year end.
The prolonged uncertainty caused by long-term stagnation with minimum profits even for vessels without any CAPEX, has been certainly affecting psychology. Even though there has certainly been an improvement when compared to the first quarter of the year, when lay-up talk had heated up, the fact that a ceiling seems to have been reached for now is definitely removing sentiment support to a degree.
The third scenario is for the index to keep moving around the same levels for an even longer period of time, with the opposing market forces cancelling each other out, allowing the BDI to achieve only minimal adjusting movements around current levels.
Depending on which scenario market players believe in most, a different view is being shaped in regards to second-hand market strategy. From the one side the most optimistic players, taking advantage of the very attractive prices that are still close to all-time historical lows, move aggressively, inspecting vessels and choosing their investments strategically. A very distinctive example of players who seem to trust the market’s dynamics, taking a position in favor of an upcoming improvement are names like these of Oldendorff, Laskaridis and Marmaras who have recently acquired larger tonnage vessels. The same tendency can be found in vessels of smaller tonnage as modern Handy’s attract firm interest from perspective buyers. On the other side, many owners choose the opposite strategy selling their vessels or making them available for sale.
It is indisputable that 2016 has so far proven to be a great window for shopping in all dry bulk sizes. The key question is how long this window will remain open for. Even if the BDI further advances during the upcoming months, it is hard to believe that asset values will increase to last year's levels anytime soon, which in turn probably offers additional time to prospective buyers to carefully monitor available market candidates and even adjust their buying strategy.
By Nassos Soulakis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 June 16
THE BDI UP 3.75 PERCENT ; BCI FELL 1.51% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.75 percent from las ...
Monday, 27 June 16
INDONESIA BANS (AGAIN) SHIPS SAILING TO THE PHILIPPINES FROM INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Transport Ministry strictly prohibited harbour masters issuing permits to all Indonesian-flagged vessels bound for the ...
Friday, 24 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP MARGINALLY
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.4 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SMALL RISE IN SHIPPING CONFIDENCE - MOORE STEPHENS
In May 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.1 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). ...
Monday, 20 June 16
CS COAL INDICES CONTINUE UPWARD TREND SINCE END APRIL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up again by 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton this past we ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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