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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 18 April 16
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 70,000 Metric Tons of 4,600 kcal/kg NAR coal for ...
Monday, 18 April 16
SOUTH AFRICA RB1 COAL HAS LOST GROUND IN INDIA; RB2 MAY LOSE GRIP IF THE PRICE CROSSES US$ 50 A TON - TRADERS
COALspot.com: Indian coal consumers preferred to buy South Africa RB2 coal instead of RB1 coal recent months due to RB2's low CFR price level. ...
Monday, 18 April 16
CAPESIZE INDEX ROSE 44.66 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Friday, 15 April 16
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUES TO FIRM - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a positive freight market for the past few weeks, however, this week the market is taking a small breather, says Fearnleys in it ...
Friday, 15 April 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FALLS ACROSS ALL BASINS - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.2 million short tons (mm ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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