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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 April 16
ON THE TIGHTROPE, IT CAN BE HARD TO KEEP YOUR BALANCE.... - CLARKSONS
Today’s headlines often point towards the impact of the demand side on the state of health of the shipping markets. But despite the fact that ...
Monday, 11 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDEX FOR 5700 GAR COAL UP 0.03 CENTS, OR ABOUT 0.06 PERCENT, TO $48.21 A TON
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 0.15 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
Monday, 11 April 16
COAL IS NOT THE ENEMY TO FIGHT - ANDREA CLAVARINO, ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: “Coal is not the enemy to fight and electricity production from coal has an environmental impact in its lifecycle similar to na ...
Monday, 11 April 16
FORTY INDIAN COAL IMPORTERS UNDER THE DRI SCANNER FOR OVER-INVOICING : HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The Finance Ministry and the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI) of India are said to have stepped up investigations into the alleged over-in ...
Monday, 11 April 16
BDI ROSE TO ITS HIGHEST LEVEL IN FOUR MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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