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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 April 16
AUSTRALIAN MINING SERVICES SECTOR SQUEEZED BY MINERS' COST CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says mining services companies' revenues and margins will remain under pressure as miners continue to focus on reducing costs ami ...
Thursday, 14 April 16
DRY BULKERS' PRICES COULD BE HEADING UPWARDS AS BUYERS' APPETITE INCREASES - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Investment sentiment is beginning to trend upwards in the market for second hand dry bulk carriers. According to the latest weekly report from ship ...
Wednesday, 13 April 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 16 PER CENT IN 2016; THE LARGEST ANNUAL PERCENTAGE DECLINE SINCE 1958 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in March 2016 was 52 million short tons (MMst), a 2 MMst (4%) decrease from the previous month and 29 MMst ...
Tuesday, 12 April 16
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE INCREASES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price Increases For Second Straight Month in April 2016.
The Director General of Mine ...
Tuesday, 12 April 16
NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT COAL PRICE DECLINES IN THE FUTURE - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch does not expect further significant coal price declines because producers sector-wide are suffering losses while China and Indo ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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