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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 April 16
U.S WEEKLY DOMESTIC COAL OUTPUT UP 8.2 PER CENT - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.1 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 21 April 16
PANAMAX: A VERY HEALTHY NORTH ATLANTIC FOR BOTH ROUNDS AND FRONTHAUL
Capesize
Correcting after last week's quadrupling.
This year's highest daily average of USD 8000 came on the back of substantial pro ...
Wednesday, 20 April 16
2017 IS EXPECTED TO BE A MUCH BETTER YEAR FOR THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - INTERMODAL
Some months ago we noted that all projections anticipated 2016 to be a better year from a macroeconomic point of view when compared to 2015. As we ...
Tuesday, 19 April 16
STARS STILL SHINING? KEY IMPORTERS THROUGH THE TELESCOPE - CLARKSONS
As the pace of growth in Chinese seaborne imports has slowed, and prospects for a return to stronger rates of expansion appear to have diminished, ...
Monday, 18 April 16
INDONESIAN 5000 GAR COAL INDEX DECLINE 1.43 PERCENT WEEK OVER WEEK - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin fell 1.43 percent week over week to averaging $38.65 per ton on this past Friday, ac ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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