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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 April 16
PRICES OF POWER-STATION COAL IN INDONESIA IS INCREASING
COALspot.com: Inquiries for Indonesian 4200 - 4400 Kcal/kg GAR thermal coal cargoes from India suddenly increase recent days.
A Jakarta-based ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
KOMIPO TO IMPORT 710K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL DURING JULY - SEPTEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 710,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Thursday, 28 April 16
CAPE: BIT MORE OPTIMISM IN THE MARKET; SUPRAMAX: FORWARD CURVE IS FALLING - FEARNLEYS
Cape
A bit of a slower week. Activity level has dropped, though the rates do still remain firm, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Wednesday, 27 April 16
THE OCEAN SHIPPING EXPERIENCED DRAMATIC VOLATILITY IN THE BEGINNING OF 2016 - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Shipping’s new (ab)normal
The global economy and ocean shipping experienced dramatic volatility in the beginning of 2016 and as the glob ...
Wednesday, 27 April 16
INDONESIAN COAL MINER KIDECO REPORTED NET PROFIT OF US$138.1 MILLION IN 2015
COALspot.com: Kideco Jaya Agung, one of the Indonesia's leading coal miners has reported net profit of US$138.1 million on revenue of US$1.65 b ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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