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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 May 16
INDIA'S GANGAVARAM PORT SETS ALL INDIA RECORD FOR NON-COKING COAL DISCHARGE
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, the deepest and the most modern port in India, has created yet another historical milestone record by discharging 15 ...
Monday, 02 May 16
CS (I) 5000 GAR COAL INDEX CLOSES 0.11% HIGHER, 5700 GAR COAL RISES 0.07% W/W
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $38.78 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 02 May 16
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO SOFT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
Saturday, 30 April 16
40 YEARS OF HANDLING COAL AT THE BTW IN WILHELMSHAVEN UNDER THE RHENUS FLAG
Press Release: The first bulk carrier with coal on board docked at the Bulk Terminal Wilhelmshaven (BTW), which is operated by Rhenus Midgar ...
Friday, 29 April 16
U.S. COAL IMPORTS IN Q4' 15 DECLINED TO 2.7 MMST FROM 3 MMST IN Q3' 15
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.3 million short tons (mm ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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