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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 April 16
INDONESIA BANNED COAL EXPORTS TO PHILIPPINES BY BARGES DUE TO SECURITY CONCERN
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) on behalf of the government of Indonesia has Freeze coal exports by barges to Phi ...
Tuesday, 26 April 16
NEWBUILDING DEMAND DOWN EVERYWHERE? - CLARKSONS
Newbuild activity provides one indication of an owner country’s likely future fleet growth, though secondhand sale and purchase and demolitio ...
Monday, 25 April 16
CHINESE STEEL PRICE SURGE NOT SUSTAINABLE - FITCH
The rapid increase in Chinese steel prices so far this year is not sustainable, as it is largely due to a seasonal pick-up in construction and elev ...
Monday, 25 April 16
WEEKLY CS (I) COAL INDICES END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $38.67 per ton on this past Friday, acco ...
Monday, 25 April 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A POSITIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to rose this week.
The freight market was ...
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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