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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the ...
Monday, 09 May 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES UP CONTINUES; POSITIVE DIRECTION
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.10 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Wednesday, a ...
Monday, 09 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS STEADY PROGRESS MOVING FORWARD ON THE BACK OF GROWING TRADE VOLUMES - BIMCO
In its latest short-term analysis of the shipping markets, BIMCO reiterated its optimism on the prospects of the dry bulk market moving forward. Ac ...
Monday, 09 May 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A NEGATIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
Friday, 06 May 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 9 PERCENT W/W; DOWN 35.3 PERCENT Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million short to ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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