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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 May 16
VOLATILITY? VARIATION NO ENIGMA TO SHIPPING..... - CLARKSONS
Along with cyclicality, the other characteristic of the shipping markets which receives frequent mention is volatility. This is so evident that the ...
Monday, 09 May 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES UP CONTINUES; POSITIVE DIRECTION
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.10 percent week over week to averaging $38.82 per ton on this past Wednesday, a ...
Monday, 09 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING TO WITNESS STEADY PROGRESS MOVING FORWARD ON THE BACK OF GROWING TRADE VOLUMES - BIMCO
In its latest short-term analysis of the shipping markets, BIMCO reiterated its optimism on the prospects of the dry bulk market moving forward. Ac ...
Monday, 09 May 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX ENDS WEEK ON A NEGATIVE NOTE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
Friday, 06 May 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 9 PERCENT W/W; DOWN 35.3 PERCENT Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.3 million short to ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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