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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 May 16
CHINA THERMAL-POWER OVERSUPPLY TO WORSEN - FITCH
COALspot.com: The overcapacity in thermal-power generation in China is likely to worsen in 2016 to 2017, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
F ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
ON YOUR MARKS: TRACKING CHINESE TRADE - CLARKSONS
One of the major drivers behind the challenges currently facing many of the shipping markets has been slower demand growth. World seaborne trade gr ...
Monday, 16 May 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY COAL INDICES AT POSITIVE LEVELS - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.94 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 16 May 16
OPEC SEES RIVAL OIL PRODUCTION DECLINING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $37.86/b in April, a gain of $3.21 or 9.3%. This was 40% higher than the lows reache ...
Monday, 16 May 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS WEAK AND ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WERE DOWN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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