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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 May 16
CHINA THERMAL-POWER OVERSUPPLY TO WORSEN - FITCH
COALspot.com: The overcapacity in thermal-power generation in China is likely to worsen in 2016 to 2017, Fitch Ratings says in a new report.
F ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
ON YOUR MARKS: TRACKING CHINESE TRADE - CLARKSONS
One of the major drivers behind the challenges currently facing many of the shipping markets has been slower demand growth. World seaborne trade gr ...
Monday, 16 May 16
INDONESIAN WEEKLY COAL INDICES AT POSITIVE LEVELS - CS (I) COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin up 0.31 percent week over week to averaging $38.94 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 16 May 16
OPEC SEES RIVAL OIL PRODUCTION DECLINING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $37.86/b in April, a gain of $3.21 or 9.3%. This was 40% higher than the lows reache ...
Monday, 16 May 16
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS WEAK AND ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WERE DOWN
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week.
The freight market was weak and a ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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