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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 May 16
AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE CARGOES PUSHED UP THE FREIGHT RATES FOR CAPE THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a big jump in the freight rates for Cape size this week, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. All of the Australian iron ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
DISPUTE OVER VAT ON COAL DRAGS ON, CAUSING DOUBLE-BLOW TO MINERS - JP
The dispute over the value-added tax ( VAT ) mechanism between coal miners operating under third-generation contracts and the Finance Ministry&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
DRY BULK OUTLOOK REMAINS GLOOMY SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE, AS SHIPPING NEEDS TO RETHINK BUSINESS MODEL - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Our Shipping Market Review – May 2016 is devoted to the fourth industrial revolution. To understand the truly disruptive nature of the fourth ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DECLINE AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price declined in May 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator of ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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