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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 19 May 16
AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE CARGOES PUSHED UP THE FREIGHT RATES FOR CAPE THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
It has been a big jump in the freight rates for Cape size this week, says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report. All of the Australian iron ...
Thursday, 19 May 16
DISPUTE OVER VAT ON COAL DRAGS ON, CAUSING DOUBLE-BLOW TO MINERS - JP
The dispute over the value-added tax ( VAT ) mechanism between coal miners operating under third-generation contracts and the Finance Ministry&rsqu ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
DRY BULK OUTLOOK REMAINS GLOOMY SAYS DANISH SHIP FINANCE, AS SHIPPING NEEDS TO RETHINK BUSINESS MODEL - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Our Shipping Market Review – May 2016 is devoted to the fourth industrial revolution. To understand the truly disruptive nature of the fourth ...
Wednesday, 18 May 16
LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the end of the first half of the year, there is a number of market participants over at the dry bulk sector that have started ...
Tuesday, 17 May 16
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE DECLINE AGAIN
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price declined in May 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator of ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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