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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 24 May 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES NEGATIVE FOR ALL TYPES OF COAL EXCEPT 3800 GAR COAL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was down 0.10 percent week over week to averaging $38.90 per ton this past week, sho ...
Monday, 23 May 16
A PERFECT STORM FOR INDONESIAN STEAM COAL EXPORTS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
Indonesia is the world’s leading steam coal exporter, accounting for over 40% of global seaborne steam coal exports since 2010. However in 20 ...
Monday, 23 May 16
THE PANAMAX INDEX WAS UP 17 POINTS W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this week.
The freight market was firm and all ...
Friday, 20 May 16
SHIPBUILDING CONTRACTS: CAN I CANCEL? SHOULD I CANCEL? - THE SHIPOWNER CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are many circumstances in which a buyer of a new-build vessel might want to terminate or cancel their contract with ...
Friday, 20 May 16
U.S COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDED 14 MAY TOTALED 11.4 MMST; UP 3.8% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.4 million short tons (mm ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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