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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 June 16
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IN APRIL 2016 DECLINED 15% Y/Y; COAL INDIA INCREASED COAL PRICES BY 6.2%
Coal India has approved raising weighted average coal prices by 6.2 per cent over the current price for both regulated and non-regulated sectors.
...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
ZERO SUPPLY TO FUEL GROWTH IN THE DRY BULK MARKET SAYS BIMCO PRESIDENT
The dry bulk market could become profitable again in 2019 – but only if a series of extremely tough and sustained measures are taken by shipo ...
Tuesday, 31 May 16
CS50 INDONESIA COAL INDEX UP 0.28% COMPARED WITH A WEEK AGO
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $39.01 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT HALF A MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal T ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BCI ENDING AT 830 POINTS, DOWN 4.6 PER CENT W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week. The freight market was weak this past ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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