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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 June 16
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IN APRIL 2016 DECLINED 15% Y/Y; COAL INDIA INCREASED COAL PRICES BY 6.2%
Coal India has approved raising weighted average coal prices by 6.2 per cent over the current price for both regulated and non-regulated sectors.
...
Wednesday, 01 June 16
ZERO SUPPLY TO FUEL GROWTH IN THE DRY BULK MARKET SAYS BIMCO PRESIDENT
The dry bulk market could become profitable again in 2019 – but only if a series of extremely tough and sustained measures are taken by shipo ...
Tuesday, 31 May 16
CS50 INDONESIA COAL INDEX UP 0.28% COMPARED WITH A WEEK AGO
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.28 percent week over week to averaging $39.01 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BORYEONG POWER PLANT TO IMPORT HALF A MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 500,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal T ...
Monday, 30 May 16
BCI ENDING AT 830 POINTS, DOWN 4.6 PER CENT W/W
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities decline this week. The freight market was weak this past ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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