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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 13 June 16
BALTIC INDEX FLAT, INDEX FOR CAPE RISE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities flat this past week. The freight market was almost same l ...
Friday, 10 June 16
INDONESIAN 6322 GAR COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO $51.81 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in June 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator ...
Friday, 10 June 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 12 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JUNE 4, UP 4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12 million short tons (mmst ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
BPI ACHIEVES FINANCIAL CLOSE FOR ITS 2000 MW POWER PROJECT IN CENTRAL JAVA
COALspot.com: PT Bhimasena Power Indonesia (BPI) on June 6th, 2016 Achieves financial close for its 2x1,000 MW power project in Batang Regency, Cen ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
U.S COAL IMPORTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 12 MMST IN 2016 AND 11 MMST IN 2017 - EIA
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in May was 50 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (10%) increase from the previous month but 19 MMst (28%) lower ...
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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