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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 13 June 16
BALTIC INDEX FLAT, INDEX FOR CAPE RISE
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities flat this past week. The freight market was almost same l ...
Friday, 10 June 16
INDONESIAN 6322 GAR COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO $51.81 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in June 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the regulator ...
Friday, 10 June 16
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED AN ESTIMATED 12 MMST IN THE WEEK ENDED JUNE 4, UP 4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 12 million short tons (mmst ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
BPI ACHIEVES FINANCIAL CLOSE FOR ITS 2000 MW POWER PROJECT IN CENTRAL JAVA
COALspot.com: PT Bhimasena Power Indonesia (BPI) on June 6th, 2016 Achieves financial close for its 2x1,000 MW power project in Batang Regency, Cen ...
Wednesday, 08 June 16
U.S COAL IMPORTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE 12 MMST IN 2016 AND 11 MMST IN 2017 - EIA
Coal Supply
U.S. coal production in May was 50 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (10%) increase from the previous month but 19 MMst (28%) lower ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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