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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 June 16
THE DRY BULK PRICES CORRECTED UPWARDS ROUGHLY 15% - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Once more, the international shipping community turned its attention to Greece and more specifically to Attica that hosted Posidonia, the biggest m ...
Tuesday, 14 June 16
CS COAL INDICES ROSE UP FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK; 4200 GAR COAL UP 0.73%
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.54 percent week over week to averaging $39.37 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 13 June 16
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES COULD PROVIDE FUTURE BOOST FOR SHIP OWNERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
When it comes to the dry bulk market, shipowners these days are looking for news in any shape or form they can find them. However, as the discussio ...
Monday, 13 June 16
ONSHORE SHALE: WORTH KEEPING IN THE SHIPPING SPOTLIGHT CLARKSONS
Generally, shipping industry watchers spend much of their time monitoring events out to sea: how fleets are evolving, trade volumes growing and fre ...
Monday, 13 June 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 5.03% MORE COAL IN MAY; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DECLINED 2.08% FROM APRIL
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.162bill ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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