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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 June 16
THE DRY BULK PRICES CORRECTED UPWARDS ROUGHLY 15% - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Once more, the international shipping community turned its attention to Greece and more specifically to Attica that hosted Posidonia, the biggest m ...
Tuesday, 14 June 16
CS COAL INDICES ROSE UP FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK; 4200 GAR COAL UP 0.73%
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.54 percent week over week to averaging $39.37 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 13 June 16
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK COMMODITIES COULD PROVIDE FUTURE BOOST FOR SHIP OWNERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
When it comes to the dry bulk market, shipowners these days are looking for news in any shape or form they can find them. However, as the discussio ...
Monday, 13 June 16
ONSHORE SHALE: WORTH KEEPING IN THE SHIPPING SPOTLIGHT CLARKSONS
Generally, shipping industry watchers spend much of their time monitoring events out to sea: how fleets are evolving, trade volumes growing and fre ...
Monday, 13 June 16
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 5.03% MORE COAL IN MAY; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DECLINED 2.08% FROM APRIL
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1.162bill ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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