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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 08 June 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT MOVING SIDEWAYS LAST WEEK; SECOND HAND PURCHASES MOVING NORTH - INTERMODAL
Once again its Posidonia time and the biannual exhibition takes place during a very warm June here in Athens, as if the performance of the dry bulk ...
Tuesday, 07 June 16
CS COAL INDEX ROSE FOR SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.38 percent week over week to averaging $39.16 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 06 June 16
BDI GAINED ON A STRONGER DEMAND FOR CAPESIZE SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week on a stronger demand for Capesize ves ...
Friday, 03 June 16
DRY BULK VESSEL DELIVERIES COULD BE LESS THAN 50 MILLION DWT IN 2016, AS OWNERS DELAY OR CANCEL NEWBUILDING ORDERS
The dry bulk market has been caught between a rock and a hard place over the course of the past couple of years, as on one hand demand has plunged, ...
Friday, 03 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIDES 1.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.5 million short tons (mm ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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