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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 08 June 16
THE DRY BULK MARKET KEPT MOVING SIDEWAYS LAST WEEK; SECOND HAND PURCHASES MOVING NORTH - INTERMODAL
Once again its Posidonia time and the biannual exhibition takes place during a very warm June here in Athens, as if the performance of the dry bulk ...
Tuesday, 07 June 16
CS COAL INDEX ROSE FOR SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up 0.38 percent week over week to averaging $39.16 per ton this past week, shows ...
Monday, 06 June 16
BDI GAINED ON A STRONGER DEMAND FOR CAPESIZE SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week on a stronger demand for Capesize ves ...
Friday, 03 June 16
DRY BULK VESSEL DELIVERIES COULD BE LESS THAN 50 MILLION DWT IN 2016, AS OWNERS DELAY OR CANCEL NEWBUILDING ORDERS
The dry bulk market has been caught between a rock and a hard place over the course of the past couple of years, as on one hand demand has plunged, ...
Friday, 03 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIDES 1.3% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.5 million short tons (mm ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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