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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 May 16
PET-COKE IMPORTS TO FACE PRESSURE IN INDIA
COALspot.com: An Indian environmental activist moved the National Green Tribunal seeking ban on the use of all forms of petroleum coke, also called ...
Friday, 27 May 16
US COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.9% WOW, ACCORDING TO EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 26 May 16
GIANT ORE CARRIERS SET TO PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE GLOBAL SHIPPING FLEET: CHINA EMBRACES VALEMAXES - RICHARD SCOTT
Another phase of the giant ships era is approaching. Chinese shipowners placed orders recently for 30 huge ‘valemax’ ore carriers. Thes ...
Wednesday, 25 May 16
MEDIATION AS A WAY TO RESOLVE DISPUTES IN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LANA JACOBS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping market is currently experiencing a serious recession with the Baltic Dry Index and Baltic Capesize Index bot ...
Wednesday, 25 May 16
DRY BULK SNP MARKET DISPLAYS SIGNS OF STRENGTH - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Only a couple of weeks away from the world’s most prominent maritime event, the market for tankers displays an evident lack of confidence in ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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