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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 May 16
PET-COKE IMPORTS TO FACE PRESSURE IN INDIA
COALspot.com: An Indian environmental activist moved the National Green Tribunal seeking ban on the use of all forms of petroleum coke, also called ...
Friday, 27 May 16
US COAL PRODUCTION ROSE 2.9% WOW, ACCORDING TO EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 11.7 million short tons (mm ...
Thursday, 26 May 16
GIANT ORE CARRIERS SET TO PLAY A BIGGER ROLE IN THE GLOBAL SHIPPING FLEET: CHINA EMBRACES VALEMAXES - RICHARD SCOTT
Another phase of the giant ships era is approaching. Chinese shipowners placed orders recently for 30 huge ‘valemax’ ore carriers. Thes ...
Wednesday, 25 May 16
MEDIATION AS A WAY TO RESOLVE DISPUTES IN THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LANA JACOBS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping market is currently experiencing a serious recession with the Baltic Dry Index and Baltic Capesize Index bot ...
Wednesday, 25 May 16
DRY BULK SNP MARKET DISPLAYS SIGNS OF STRENGTH - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Only a couple of weeks away from the world’s most prominent maritime event, the market for tankers displays an evident lack of confidence in ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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