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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 27 June 16
THE BDI UP 3.75 PERCENT ; BCI FELL 1.51% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.75 percent from las ...
Monday, 27 June 16
INDONESIA BANS (AGAIN) SHIPS SAILING TO THE PHILIPPINES FROM INDONESIA
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Transport Ministry strictly prohibited harbour masters issuing permits to all Indonesian-flagged vessels bound for the ...
Friday, 24 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP MARGINALLY
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.4 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SMALL RISE IN SHIPPING CONFIDENCE - MOORE STEPHENS
In May 2016, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.1 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). ...
Wednesday, 22 June 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Stagnation- With the BDI stuck in the low 600 points for almost a month now, if we had to choose a word to describe the state of the Dry Bulk freig ...
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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