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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 July 16
BDI ROSE ON STRONGER DEMAND ACROSS ALL VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 11.16 percent from la ...
Friday, 01 July 16
BREXIT SET TO HURT SHIPPING IN THE LONG-TERM AS IT WILL TAKE ITS TOLL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY'S GROWTH - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Setting aside the short-term negative impact of the Brexit, in terms of stock market and currency volatility, it’s more than evident that the ...
Friday, 01 July 16
U.S'S COAL EXPORTS HAVE DECLINED FOR TWELVE QUARTERS IN A ROW - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.7 million short t ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
CAPE - THIS WEEK'S FREIGHT AND ACTIVITY LEVEL HAVE KEPT STABLE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
This week’s freight and activity level have kept stable. It is support at the present levels and despite a volatile market the freight ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
OIL PRODUCT TANKERS EARNINGS DECLINE AS STOCKBUILDING SLOWS DOWN - BIMCO
BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is stil ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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