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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 July 16
BDI ROSE ON STRONGER DEMAND ACROSS ALL VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 11.16 percent from la ...
Friday, 01 July 16
BREXIT SET TO HURT SHIPPING IN THE LONG-TERM AS IT WILL TAKE ITS TOLL IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY'S GROWTH - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Setting aside the short-term negative impact of the Brexit, in terms of stock market and currency volatility, it’s more than evident that the ...
Friday, 01 July 16
U.S'S COAL EXPORTS HAVE DECLINED FOR TWELVE QUARTERS IN A ROW - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s one of the largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 13.7 million short t ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
CAPE - THIS WEEK'S FREIGHT AND ACTIVITY LEVEL HAVE KEPT STABLE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
This week’s freight and activity level have kept stable. It is support at the present levels and despite a volatile market the freight ...
Thursday, 30 June 16
OIL PRODUCT TANKERS EARNINGS DECLINE AS STOCKBUILDING SLOWS DOWN - BIMCO
BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is stil ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
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