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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 780000 MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Wednesday, 06 July 16
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
After a fairly silent first half of the year in the ship repair sector, we have finally a harmonized workload in the shipyards around the world. Ma ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the mon ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
SPOT COAL INDEXES FOR INDONESIAN COAL CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.83 percent week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week, sh ...
Monday, 04 July 16
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE CLIMBED 2.30% IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in July 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the r ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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