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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 July 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 780000 MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Wednesday, 06 July 16
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
After a fairly silent first half of the year in the ship repair sector, we have finally a harmonized workload in the shipyards around the world. Ma ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING'S RECOVERY NOT SEEN UNTIL 2018 - SGX
SGX freight derivative volumes totaled 36,542 contracts in June (-28% m/m; +52% y/y), while open interest averaged 121,189 contracts during the mon ...
Tuesday, 05 July 16
SPOT COAL INDEXES FOR INDONESIAN COAL CONTINUE TO HOLD FIRM - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.83 percent week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week, sh ...
Monday, 04 July 16
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE CLIMBED 2.30% IN JULY
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Benchmark Price increased in July 2016.
The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia, the r ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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