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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 July 16
SHIPPING'S HALF YEAR REPORT - 'MUST DO BETTER' - CLARKSONS
It’s the time of year, with the school holidays and end of term approaching, that many pupils will nervously take home their school reports t ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL EXPORTS TO DECLINE BY 15 MMST IN 2016 AND BY 4 MMST IN 2017
COALspot.com: U.S. coal production in June was 57 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (13%) increase from May and 9 MMst (14%) lower than in June 2 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 16
2015 VS. 2016; THE DRY BULK DEMOLITION DERBY - JOHN N. COTZIAS
In the first half of the year 373 Bulkers and General Cargo ships were scrapped representing 23.8mil tons of dwt carrying capacity.
Comparing ...
Tuesday, 12 July 16
DUE TO LONG HOLIDAYS, CS COAL INDICES HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL OF THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was flat week over week to averaging $39.98 per ton this past week.
Due to the ...
Monday, 11 July 16
COAL MARKETS SAW IMPROVED PRICES IN H1 2016 - SGX'S COMMODITIES MID-YEAR REFLECTION
COALspot.com: Coal
Coal markets saw improved prices in H1 2016 with the benchmark coking coal and thermal coal spot prices rising 18% and 25%, re ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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