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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 July 16
THE MAIN SEA FREIGHT INDEX, BDI ROSE FURTHER ON 8 JULY DUE TO STRONG DEMAND FOR PANAMAX SHIPS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week. The BDI was up 3.84 percent from las ...
Monday, 11 July 16
DRY BULK MARKET: UP TO 30 MILLION DWT OF OLDER BULKERS WILL NEED TO BE SCRAPPED BY END OF 2017 FOR MARKET TO FIND BALANCE
Tonnage oversupply in the dry bulk market is more than evident, as newbuildings have been hitting the water faster than owners can scrap their olde ...
Friday, 08 July 16
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 3% TO 14.1 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
PANAMAX : THE TENDENCY FROM LAST WEEK CONTINUES WITH A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SENTIMENT ALL ACROSS THE BLOCK - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates have been holding at steady levels over the last weeks but towards end of this period they are becoming under more pressure as gen ...
Thursday, 07 July 16
CONSOLIDATION TO RULE OVER SHIPPING, AS EXECUTIVES SEEK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA, INDIA AND EUROPE SAYS NORTON ROSE SURVEY
The transport sector is looking to Asia Pacific as the key market for investment over the next five years, according to the seventh The way ahead T ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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