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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 July 16
EDIBLE OIL MARKETS ACROSS THE GLOBE REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The edible oil markets across the globe remain under pressure on the back of lackluster demand. Some of the main factors causing the low activity a ...
Tuesday, 19 July 16
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDEXES CONTINUALLY FIRM UP ON ROBUST BUYING INTEREST - CS COAL INDEX
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose One percent week over week to averaging $40.38 per ton this past week, shows CS ...
Monday, 18 July 16
FROM PIT TO PORT: DRY BULK NEEDS A NEW PATH TO PROFITABILITY - TOC EUROPE
During the golden years for commodities, from 2005 to 2014, high demand and big profit margins pushed companies to produce more and more, sacrifici ...
Monday, 18 July 16
BALTIC DRY INDEX REMAIN FIRM, UP BY 5.97 WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities continued to remain firm with all segments ending in posi ...
Friday, 15 July 16
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 8.4% WEEK-OVER-WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short tons (mms ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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