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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 28 July 16
FITCH RAISES CORPORATE OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION FOR 2016 TO USD42
Fitch Ratings has raised the 2016 oil price assumptions it uses when rating energy-sector corporates, but expects record high inventories to slow a ...
Thursday, 28 July 16
LAST WEEK ENDING UP WITH BUSIER TONES FOR SUPRAMAXES NOW COOLING DOWN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Last week ending up with busier tones for Supramaxes now cooling down as with index being down to 684. Average daily earnings for Supram ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZES OVER-PERFORMED THE MARKET LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
The decline the BDI noted last week was somewhat expected given the fact that the market has been overall firming for almost a month no ...
Wednesday, 27 July 16
GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER THAN GLOBAL CONSUMPTION IN 2016 - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Global oil supply is expected to remain higher than global consumption in 2016, keeping oil prices at relatively low levels this summer compared wi ...
Tuesday, 26 July 16
NORTH P&I CLUB EXPLAINS HOW TO AVOID CLAIMS FOR SELF-COOKING SOYA BEANS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
North P&I Club has advised its members to be extra vigilant during loading and transport of soya beans to ensure they ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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