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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 25 July 16
STRONG BUYER DEMAND PUSHING UP INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL INDICES
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.73 percent week over week to averaging $40.83 per ton this past week, shows C ...
Monday, 25 July 16
THE BDI FELL ON WEAKER RATES FOR CAPESIZE & PANAMAX VESSELS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape and Panamax segments ending in neg ...
Friday, 22 July 16
U.S COAL OUTPUT ROSE 17.2% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S, world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million short tons (mms ...
Thursday, 21 July 16
WHAT TO DO WHEN YOU DON'T GET PAID - SHIPOWNERS CLUB
Present market conditions have led to an increase in claims related to unpaid hire. To recover unpaid hire, Owners need to fully understand who the ...
Thursday, 21 July 16
CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS: WHAT GOES IN TO CALCULATING QUANTUM? - HILL DICKINSON
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Commercial Court recently delivered its judgment in an important case (Connect Shipping Inc and Machrimar Management ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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