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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 August 16
SHIP TRADING AND ORDERING CLOSE TO A STALEMATE AS SUMMER LULL KICKS IN
With newbuilding activity already at a near standstill since the start of the year, most of 2016’s trading activity in shipping was evident i ...
Tuesday, 02 August 16
INDONESIAN CS COAL INDICES STAY POSITIVE
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin rose 0.71% week over week to averaging $41.12 per ton this past week, shows CS (i) C ...
Monday, 01 August 16
4200 GAR INDONESIAN COAL PRICE MAY TOUCH $ 32/33 A TON LEVELS SOON
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal prices are likely surge further in 2016 as the recent price movement in Indonesian coal markets suggests that the mar ...
Monday, 01 August 16
BALTIC INDEX ENDED NEGATIVE NOTE THIS PAST WEEK ON WEAKER RATES ACROSS ALL LARGE VESSEL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities slide slightly as Cape, Panamax and Supramax segments end ...
Friday, 29 July 16
U.S. COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ( ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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