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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
Tuesday, 28 June 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES ROSE ON RENEWED DEMAND FROM CHINA
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.66 percent week over week to averaging $39.65 per ton this past week, sh ...
Tuesday, 28 June 16
CHINA'S IRON ORE IMPORTS: HOW MUCH MORE WORK FOR CAPES? - CLARKSONS
Chinese iron ore imports account for around two thirds of global seaborne iron ore shipments, making it the key driver of Capesize employment. Whil ...
Monday, 27 June 16
LATEST NEWS ON BIMCO'S CONTRACTS AND CLAUSES
BIMCO is currently updating several of its most widely used charter parties including SUPPLYTIME and BARECON. New developments include the Standard ...
Monday, 27 June 16
BREXIT RESULT COULD SEE UK FACING AN EXODUS OF MARITIME TALENT - FASTSTREAM
The UK’s decision to leave the EU has the potential to drive many of its maritime employees away, according to the results of a survey issued ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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