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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
Tuesday, 28 June 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES ROSE ON RENEWED DEMAND FROM CHINA
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.66 percent week over week to averaging $39.65 per ton this past week, sh ...
Tuesday, 28 June 16
CHINA'S IRON ORE IMPORTS: HOW MUCH MORE WORK FOR CAPES? - CLARKSONS
Chinese iron ore imports account for around two thirds of global seaborne iron ore shipments, making it the key driver of Capesize employment. Whil ...
Monday, 27 June 16
LATEST NEWS ON BIMCO'S CONTRACTS AND CLAUSES
BIMCO is currently updating several of its most widely used charter parties including SUPPLYTIME and BARECON. New developments include the Standard ...
Monday, 27 June 16
BREXIT RESULT COULD SEE UK FACING AN EXODUS OF MARITIME TALENT - FASTSTREAM
The UK’s decision to leave the EU has the potential to drive many of its maritime employees away, according to the results of a survey issued ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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