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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 June 16
THE DRY BULK INDICES, OPPOSITE TO MOST GLOBAL MARKET INDICES, ROSE END OF LAST WEEK
Last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the begi ...
Tuesday, 28 June 16
WEEKLY CS COAL INDICES ROSE ON RENEWED DEMAND FROM CHINA
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up by 0.66 percent week over week to averaging $39.65 per ton this past week, sh ...
Tuesday, 28 June 16
CHINA'S IRON ORE IMPORTS: HOW MUCH MORE WORK FOR CAPES? - CLARKSONS
Chinese iron ore imports account for around two thirds of global seaborne iron ore shipments, making it the key driver of Capesize employment. Whil ...
Monday, 27 June 16
LATEST NEWS ON BIMCO'S CONTRACTS AND CLAUSES
BIMCO is currently updating several of its most widely used charter parties including SUPPLYTIME and BARECON. New developments include the Standard ...
Monday, 27 June 16
BREXIT RESULT COULD SEE UK FACING AN EXODUS OF MARITIME TALENT - FASTSTREAM
The UK’s decision to leave the EU has the potential to drive many of its maritime employees away, according to the results of a survey issued ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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