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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 June 16
CS COAL INDICES CONTINUE UPWARD TREND SINCE END APRIL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up again by 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton this past we ...
Monday, 20 June 16
THE BDI HAS FELL 23 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined this past week. The BDI was fell 3.77 percent fr ...
Friday, 17 June 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY TO REDUCE WASTE IN RENEWABLE ENERGY - FITCH
Chinese renewable energy producers are likely to benefit from a new policy that guarantees a minimum amount of solar and wind power is purchased in ...
Friday, 17 June 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Friday, 17 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s one of the largest coal producer has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short t ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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