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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 June 16
CS COAL INDICES CONTINUE UPWARD TREND SINCE END APRIL
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin was up again by 0.05 percent week over week to averaging $39.39 per ton this past we ...
Monday, 20 June 16
THE BDI HAS FELL 23 POINTS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities declined this past week. The BDI was fell 3.77 percent fr ...
Friday, 17 June 16
CHINA'S NEW POLICY TO REDUCE WASTE IN RENEWABLE ENERGY - FITCH
Chinese renewable energy producers are likely to benefit from a new policy that guarantees a minimum amount of solar and wind power is purchased in ...
Friday, 17 June 16
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 780,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous Coal for its B ...
Friday, 17 June 16
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s one of the largest coal producer has produced approximately totalled an estimated 12.9 million short t ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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