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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 May 16
COAL CARGOES - SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Indonesia continues to be amongst the world’s major exporters of coal, some 426Mt being traded in 2013 mostly to In ...
Friday, 13 May 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION IS RUNNING 33% BELOW THE SAME PERIOD IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.9 million short tons (mm ...
Friday, 13 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET RECOVERY WILL BE A LONG, HARD-FOUGHT BATTLE - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anyone who expects a strong rally in dry bulk market rates to end the industry’s downturn will be bitterly disappointed. By contrast – ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
U.S. FORECAST COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECLINED BY 150 MMST IN 2016; THE LARGEST DECLINE SINCE 1949 - EIA
COALspot.com: EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in April was 46 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (12%) decrease from the previous month an ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Saturday 7th May, Riyadh replaced the long-serving oil minister of more than two decades, Ali-Al-Naimi, as part of a major government overhaul, ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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