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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 May 16
COAL CARGOES - SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Indonesia continues to be amongst the world’s major exporters of coal, some 426Mt being traded in 2013 mostly to In ...
Friday, 13 May 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION IS RUNNING 33% BELOW THE SAME PERIOD IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.9 million short tons (mm ...
Friday, 13 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET RECOVERY WILL BE A LONG, HARD-FOUGHT BATTLE - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anyone who expects a strong rally in dry bulk market rates to end the industry’s downturn will be bitterly disappointed. By contrast – ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
U.S. FORECAST COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECLINED BY 150 MMST IN 2016; THE LARGEST DECLINE SINCE 1949 - EIA
COALspot.com: EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in April was 46 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (12%) decrease from the previous month an ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Saturday 7th May, Riyadh replaced the long-serving oil minister of more than two decades, Ali-Al-Naimi, as part of a major government overhaul, ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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