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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 May 16
COAL CARGOES - SOME RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Indonesia continues to be amongst the world’s major exporters of coal, some 426Mt being traded in 2013 mostly to In ...
Friday, 13 May 16
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION IS RUNNING 33% BELOW THE SAME PERIOD IN 2015 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.9 million short tons (mm ...
Friday, 13 May 16
DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET RECOVERY WILL BE A LONG, HARD-FOUGHT BATTLE - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Anyone who expects a strong rally in dry bulk market rates to end the industry’s downturn will be bitterly disappointed. By contrast – ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
U.S. FORECAST COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECLINED BY 150 MMST IN 2016; THE LARGEST DECLINE SINCE 1949 - EIA
COALspot.com: EIA estimates that U.S. coal production in April was 46 million short tons (MMst), a 6 MMst (12%) decrease from the previous month an ...
Wednesday, 11 May 16
MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On Saturday 7th May, Riyadh replaced the long-serving oil minister of more than two decades, Ali-Al-Naimi, as part of a major government overhaul, ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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