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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 May 16
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, AS HOLIDAYS AROUND THE WORLD HURT DEMAND - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market’s recent rally has been put on a temporary hold, as various holidays around the world have put a stop in it. In its lates ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
COAL IMPORTS: A VOLATILE MATTER OR STILL POWERING DOWN? - CLARKSONS
Chinese coal imports decreased significantly in 2014-15, and so far in 2016 the pace of decline appears to have slowed, with imports even recording ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
IS THE DRY BULK MARKET OUT OF THE WOODS YET, OR NOT? - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things are beginning to brighten up in the beleaguered dry bulk market, which is riding on a multi-week rally to find itself around the “psyc ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
POWER - WEEK: REAL EXAMPLES AND CASE STUDIES
POWER WEEK
7 - 11 November 2016, PARKROYAL on Beach Road Hotel, Singapore
www.power-week.com
Overview
Designed for the global e ...
Tuesday, 03 May 16
HOW TO AVOID THE LATEST CARGO FRAUDS - BIMCO
BIMCO receives regular reports from members around the world about cargo fraud. This week alone we have had two reports of cargoes being fixed (or ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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