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Wednesday, 01 June 16
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 In another page from this year’s oil drama, oil has, after a series of gains, rebounded to ~$50 / barrel and immediately stopped climbing. Following a number of unsuccessful efforts by OPEC and non-OPEC members to limit production during the past year, the group is meeting again this coming Thursday in Vienna in order to discuss future production policy. However, there are doubts concerning the likelihood of any such potential agreement taking shape this time round either.
With oil having gained about a third since January 2016, some of the pressure on OPEC members should have been alleviated. This is just as well since, with Iran firmly resisting OPEC’s prompts to limit production and pumping at pre-sanction levels ,(Production: 3.56mb/day, exports: 600kà2mb/day) there is little, if any, hope in them coming to an agreement with the other members. While at least 8 members would conceivably support a production cut, it is the players controlling the larger parts of the market share that will have the final say in any policy change.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is continuing the path set out in November 2014 and is seemingly moving towards a less oil-centric economy under the recently announced Saudi Vision 2030 plan. The recent replacement of Ali Al-Naimi is a step in the same direction. With the recent hike in prices, Saudi Arabia has few reasons to consider a change in a policy that has been instrumental in squeezing out higher-cost producers. Under a scenario like today’s, Saudi Arabia may well accept lower oil prices as it would minimize the opportunity cost of diversifying away from oil. It is difficult to imagine the Saudis veering away from their established strategy. Similarly, Iraq has also boosted production by 40% since 2014 and is exporting at near-record levels.
The smaller OPEC members are divided in their support based on how their economies have been affected by the oil price drop. Countries such as Algeria, Ecuador and Venezuela whose economies are dependent on high oil prices are calling for a production freeze, while others such as Indonesia and Kuwait have instead declared their intention to increase production significantly.
The effect of the price hike on US producers is worth noting. The $50 barrier was perceived by the market as a level around which a number of US producers would consider restarting their rigs, something that did happen last year during a similar increase from $50 to ~$60. However, the increase was not sustainable then and it is reasonable to assume that US producers will be wearier to restart production now.
All in all, there are few expectations for any meaningful change in policy after Thursday’s meeting, with most analysts seeing no incentive for the stronger OPEC members to cooperate or converge on their policies. While an output freeze a few months ago had started to appear like a potential outcome, the increase in prices in the meantime along with the hardening of the Saudi and Iranian stances has severely reduced the chances of such a development. As seen during the past two years, shipping can, especially during a weaker market, be greatly affected by changes in oil prices. Let’s not forget how the commodity’s price performance took everyone by surprise back in 2014 and let’s hope that whatever the oil market developments in the following months, the positive momentum of this period remains in effect.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing—Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 May 16
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, AS HOLIDAYS AROUND THE WORLD HURT DEMAND - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market’s recent rally has been put on a temporary hold, as various holidays around the world have put a stop in it. In its lates ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
COAL IMPORTS: A VOLATILE MATTER OR STILL POWERING DOWN? - CLARKSONS
Chinese coal imports decreased significantly in 2014-15, and so far in 2016 the pace of decline appears to have slowed, with imports even recording ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
IS THE DRY BULK MARKET OUT OF THE WOODS YET, OR NOT? - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things are beginning to brighten up in the beleaguered dry bulk market, which is riding on a multi-week rally to find itself around the “psyc ...
Wednesday, 04 May 16
POWER - WEEK: REAL EXAMPLES AND CASE STUDIES
POWER WEEK
7 - 11 November 2016, PARKROYAL on Beach Road Hotel, Singapore
www.power-week.com
Overview
Designed for the global e ...
Tuesday, 03 May 16
HOW TO AVOID THE LATEST CARGO FRAUDS - BIMCO
BIMCO receives regular reports from members around the world about cargo fraud. This week alone we have had two reports of cargoes being fixed (or ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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