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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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