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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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