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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 16 October 15
MAJOR REVISION OF NYPE TIME CHAPTER PARTY - BIMCO
Major revision of NYPE time charter party promises to be both balanced and comprehensive
BIMCO has today jointly issued the first revision of ...
Friday, 16 October 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4'15 DELIVERY FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK; DOWN 5.5 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) ...
Friday, 16 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK; DOWN 11.3 PER CENT Y-Y, DOWN 3.5 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.1 million shor ...
Friday, 16 October 15
INDONESIA REJOINING OPEC DESPITE BEING A NET IMPORTER OF PETROLEUM - EIA
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) notified Indonesia that it plans to accept the country's request to reactivate its ...
Thursday, 15 October 15
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price this month.
The ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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