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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctivel ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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