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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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