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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which ...
Monday, 02 November 15
DESPITE CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, ADARO LOWERS COSTS, DEBT AND DELIVERS STRONG FREE CASH FLOW
COALspot.com: Despite challenging market conditions, Adaro lowers costs, lowers debt and delivers strong free cash flow.
The Indonesia’s ...
Monday, 02 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED ON A WEAK NOTE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.81(3.71 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 01 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS WEAK
This week’s freight market sentiment remains weak compared to last week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily ...
Saturday, 31 October 15
ADARO ENERGY'S CORE EARNINGS DECLINE 21 PER CENT FOR THE NINE MONTHS PERIOD TO SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy's core earnings decline 21% to US$228 Million for first 9months of this year compared to the same period last year. ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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