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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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