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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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