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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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