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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 25 October 15
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX; INDEX FELL 5.4 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly up by 2.65 pct closing at 774 points mainly because of Cape index which was up by 10.85 pct closing at 1461 poin ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING TO CHINA'S POLICIES FOR CUES ON FUTURE MARKET DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s hard or softer landing is a thing which has troubled dry bulk shipping for a couple of years now, as owners have been hit by the coun ...
Friday, 23 October 15
WILL INDIAN DOMESTIC COAL PRICES BE ABLE TO COMPETE IMPORTED COAL PRICES IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES?
COALspot.com: The Most of the Indian end-users are waiting for last minute purchase to enjoy every drop in price. Coal procurement managers are als ...
Friday, 23 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 17 DECLINED FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
RUSSIA'S CARBO ONE COAL SALES TO HIT 50 MLN T/YR - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Russia's Carbo One has become one of the world's leading physical coal traders with an annual volume approaching 50 million t ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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