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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 08 December 15
HOW TO MITIGATE LEGAL RISKS WHEN PURCHASING BUNKERS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE OW BUNKER COLLAPSE - THE SWEDISH CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
About a year has passed since OW Bunker & Trading A/S filed for bankruptcy. The collapse shows that there are signifi ...
Monday, 07 December 15
5000 GAR CS (I) COAL INDEX REMAIN THE SAME OVER LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index remain the same over last week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated) index, the CS 50 ...
Monday, 07 December 15
COAL DEMAND IN 2016 FAILS TO SUPPORT PRICES; CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SEEN AT $US 42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 1.70 (3.88%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
THE BDI DECLINED BY 3.09 PERCENT TO 563 POINTS ON 4 DECEMBER
COALspot.com: The BDI declined by 3.09 percent to 563 points on 4 December 2015.
The Cape index was also declined by 10.01 percent to 890 poin ...
Sunday, 06 December 15
DRY BULK MARKET ON REVERSE MODE, SET TO BREAK NEW ALL-TIME LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been the negative “star” of the shipping industry for quite some time. In fact if it wasn’t for the boomi ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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