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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 13 December 15
THE LOW VESSEL DEMANDS PUSHED DOWN BALTIC DRY INDEX FURTHER DOWN
COALspot.com: The low vessel demand across nearly all vessel sizes pushed the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index further down in this F ...
Sunday, 13 December 15
DRY BULK RATES KEEP ON FALLING AS LOW VESSEL DEMAND IS STILL THE NORM - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market nowadays is in an endless downward spiral, which as it turns out is unable to recover, at least as long as the current balance ...
Friday, 11 December 15
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 7.7% IN WEEK ENDED DECEMBER 5, 2015
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
LIENING CARGO - WHICH LIEN CLAUSE APPLIES TO THE BILL OF LADING? : WIKBORG REIN | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a dry bulk market where a charterer is not paying freight or hire, its counterparty is often left to consider whether ...
Thursday, 10 December 15
CANADIAN MINER TECK ANNOUNCES LNG HAUL TRUCK PILOT PROJECT
Teck Resources Limited is piloting the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a fuel source in six haul trucks at its Fording River steelmakin ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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