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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 10 December 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL Q3' 16 DELIVERY SWAP WAS CLOSED 7.27% PER TON LOWER COMPARED TO AVERAGE Q1' 16 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 decline month over month and week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINE IN 2015 DUE TO SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES - EIA
COALspot.com: The slower growth in world coal demand and lower international coal prices have contributed to a decline in U.S. coal exports in 2015 ...
Wednesday, 09 December 15
DRY BULK EXPERIENCES THE PERFECT STORM - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
Dry bulk experiences the perfect storm as the slowing of demand predominantly because of China sat atop the exaggerated oversupply. The BDI broke t ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
OPEC'S DECISION BODES WELL FOR THE TANKER MARKET: STRONG MIDDLE EAST CRUDE EXPORTS WILL CONTINUE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
OPEC’s latest decision to keep up oil production is seen by shipbrokers as a further boost for the tanker market. At the end of last year OPE ...
Tuesday, 08 December 15
Q1' 16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 36.73 A TON; 1.73% HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3' 16 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $1.47 per ton (3.85%) month over month to US$ 36.73 per ton. The swap ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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