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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 06 December 15
DESPITE TEMPTING NEWBUILDING PRICES, CONTRACTING IN DRY BULK REMAINS LOW - BIMCO
The current newbuilding prices for dry bulk ships has dropped so much that they just passed the lows of 2012 heading downwards and are now at the l ...
Friday, 04 December 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS ARE ALMOST FLAT OVER WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and rose slightly week over week. Coal prices seen very margi ...
Friday, 04 December 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR W/E NOVEMBER 28TH FELL SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.0 million shor ...
Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will cont ...
Thursday, 03 December 15
DRY BULK: THERMAL COAL LOWER USAGE UNDER A POTENTIAL NEW CLIMATE DEAL WILL ADVERSELY IMPACT THE MARKET'S RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In direct contrast to the tanker market, the dry bulk one has seen demand for key commodities, such a coal, dwindling down over the course of the p ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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