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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 03 December 15
PANAMAX BUSINESS REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Following the new record lows the Dry Bulk market witnessed the week prior, the BDI took a much needed breath during the past days.
...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
Q3' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up month over month and fell week over week.
The Q1’ 2016 &nbs ...
Wednesday, 02 December 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Boom and bust cycles in commodity prices are not something rare, yet they have important implications both for the world economy in general and for ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.75 per ton (9.26%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 01 December 15
TANKERS VERSUS BULKERS - JUST PLAYING CATCH UP? - CLARKSONS
It’s now more than a year since the tanker market took off. In mid-2014 tanker earnings picked up and since then have been in the $30-$40,000 ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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