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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 27 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS UP FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 up week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 swa ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS EXPECTED TO REACH 16 MILLION TONS AND COKING COAL IMPORTS TO AMOUNT TO 4 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI LOOKS AT COAL FROM A DIFFERENT ANGLE
- “Coal has made huge steps towards environmental sustainability, making itself t ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET WILL REBOUND EVENTUALLY, BUT THINGS WILL BECOME EVEN WORSE BEFORE THEY IMPROVE SAYS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
As the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached an all-time late last week and has failed to rebound significantly eve ...
Thursday, 26 November 15
Q3'16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FALLS 27.5% SINCE 20 FEB 2015
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
INDIA'S POWER GENERATORS FACE LOW, FALLING UTILISATION RATE - FITCH
COAlspot.com: Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the utilisation rate of India's thermal power generation capacity continued to decline in ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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