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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIG CHINESE COPPER PROCESSORS DEFEND MARGINS THROUGH R&D, SAYS FITCH
Large Chinese copper processors are focusing on higher value-added products and investing in R&D to enhance their technical know-how to maintai ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
BIMCO LAUNCHES ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE FOR SHIPPING CONTRACTS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: BIMCO, is the world’s largest international shipping association, with 2,200 members in around 130 countries, has now launched ...
Wednesday, 25 November 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE VASTARDIS
We have already noticed obvious signs of activity mainly West of Suez, which are currently driving the clean MR market to higher levels. Over the p ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL SUPPLY PRESSURE PUTS INDONESIAN HBA IN FREE FALL
The coal industry is slowly recognizing that, the current coal price level is not a decrease in price, but a change in pricing to corresp ...
Tuesday, 24 November 15
COAL PRICES SET TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE UNTIL 2016 DUE TO OVER SUPPLY GLUT; H1 '16 COAL SWAPS DOWN 13% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $5 per ton (12.05%) month over month to US$ 36.50 per ton. The s ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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