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Thursday, 24 March 16
SEABORNE TRADE: CHECKING UP ON THE TRENDS - CLARKSON RESEARCH
 Following a decline in 2009, seaborne trade grew on average by 4.9% p.a. in 2010-13, reflecting booming import demand in a number of key importing countries and faster than global GDP growth. However, recent shifts in demand trends contributed to slower seaborne trade growth in 2014 (3.2%) and 2015 (2.0%). How has this reflected changes in demand for bulk shipments into major importing countries?
Multiple Problems?
The ratio between global seaborne trade growth and GDP growth (the ‘multiplier’), when considered over a long time period, can be a useful indicator of the impact of drivers in shipping. Following the economic downturn, the ratio averaged 1.3 in 2010-13, partly as strong Chinese GDP growth drove a surge in raw material imports, and globally production was outsourced to regions more distant from demand centres. Since 2014, the ratio has fallen below 1. The drop was most marked in 2015, with the ratio reaching 0.6, as world seaborne trade is estimated to have grown 2.0% and GDP by 3.1%, partly reflecting shifts in import demand. Growth in bulk imports (dry bulk and oil) to the five biggest importing nations in 2015 (see graph) slowed from an average of 5.5% p.a. in 2012-13, to 1.6% p.a. in 2014-15, with cargo totalling 3.7bt, equivalent to 49% of global bulk trade.
Sluggish Demand
Of course, China, the world’s largest importer of bulk cargoes, had been key in supporting the multiplier. The country’s bulk imports, which account for 23% of world seaborne bulk trade, grew on average by 11% p.a. 2010-13. However, the maturing Chinese economy’s shift, diversifying away from heavy industry, led to a stark slowdown in growth in bulk imports. Shipments to China rose 3% in 2014 and remained fairly flat y-o-y in 2015. Seaborne coal imports to the country fell 30% y-o-y to 188mt in 2015, while growth in iron ore imports slowed to 3%, from 15% in 2014. However, some of the loss was offset by robust crude import growth, partly supported by the oil price collapse.
Not Only China
While China is frequently highlighted as a of key driver of slower global trade growth, the expansion in imports into some other major nations was also more sluggish in 2014-15. Japan’s bulk imports, which account for 8% of the world total, grew on average by 3% p.a. in 2012-13, and fell 2% p.a. in 2014-15, to 588mt in 2015. Elsewhere, although expansion in Indian bulk imports has been firm, it is slowing. Growth slowed to 8% in 2015 due to a decline in coal imports.
In contrast, the rate of increase in Korean bulk imports picked up in 2014-15, largely underpinned by firmer growth in dry bulk shipments, although this was not enough to offset the slowdown in other countries. Elsewhere, the rate of decline in US imports eased, with most of the fall in oil imports having already taken place.
So, whilst the maturing Chinese economy has contributed to slower trade growth recently, it has not been the sole driver. Seaborne trade has still grown robustly since the start of 2009, by around 30%. But the world fleet is now 48% larger in GT terms. Surplus capacity today evident in many sectors is a clear reflection of concerted pressure from slower growth in shipments across key importers.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 22 November 15
INDIA COULD PROVIDE SILVER LINING FOR SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The rise of India as a global player in the shipping market could be just a couple of years away, as the country has the potential to become a seco ...
Friday, 20 November 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER '14; NO CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Friday, 20 November 15
NO IMPROVEMENT SEEN IN NEAR-TERM COAL DEMAND; SWAPS CLOSE LOWER
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 declined month on month and flat on week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this ...
Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the p ...
Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the nex ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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